China Railway Construction (601186) Q3 order review in 2019: Q3 order speeds up again, infrastructure recovery company’s performance expected

Matters: The company announced the first three quarters of 2019 orders: 19Q1-Q3 gradually new transformation orders 11152.

34 trillion, +25 for ten years.

07%, a gradual increase of 7 compared with the second quarter.

07 pp, the highest value since 2018.

Looking at each quarter, Q1-Q3 each quarter is 6.

3%, 27.

99%, 40.

30%, especially in the third quarter.

  Comment: Q3 orders speed up again, ample orders to escort the company’s performance: 19Q1-Q3, the company gradually changed the new order 11152.

34 trillion, +25 for ten years.

07%, a gradual increase of 7 compared with the second quarter.

07 pp, an increase of 25 pp from earlier Q1 to Q3.

In terms of quarters, Q1-Q3 had a single unit of 297.4 billion / 421.3 billion / 396.5 billion in the new quarter, and the single-season alternation was +6.

30% / + 27.

99% / + 40.

30%, Q3 orders are accelerated again. We believe that it is mainly the restoration of infrastructure and the acceleration of major projects, especially railway and highway projects with revenue characteristics.

In terms of 重庆耍耍网 regions, the number of new years in the country is 10,165.

87 trillion, gradually extended by +24.

71%, new chronic single overseas 986.

48ppm, up to 28 per year.

97%, domestic and overseas orders increased simultaneously.

  Many orders have blossomed, and the highway has improved significantly. In terms of business types, the company’s engineering contract orders have grown strongly, and new 9518 contracts have been gradually signed.

9.3 billion, accounting for 85.

35%, +30 per year.

30%, of which, railway orders are gradually extended by +14.

78%, a narrower increase than Q23.

8 pp, highway order improvement is the most obvious, the cumulative extension of +26.

70%, an increase of 25% over Q2.

91 pages.

We believe that the rapid growth of engineering contract business orders is mainly due to the following: 1) In the 18Q1-Q3 years, the engineering contracting / railway / highway transformation growth rates are each 2.

92% /-0.

25% /-23.

43%; 2) The traffic construction layout has been accelerated since August, and investment approval has reached a peak, especially in the transportation sector. The policy scale is good for the company’s business.

Among other businesses, the survey and design, real estate development and logistics businesses also ushered in improvements, each with a transition period of -25.

83%, +5.

26%, +5.

64%, an increase of 9% over the previous Q2.

0, 8.16, 5.

01 pp; industrial manufacturing continued to expand, new extensions increased by a single increment of 10.

90%, an increase of 4% over Q2.

01 pp.

  With the recovery of infrastructure, the company is expected to take advantage of the momentum: we still adhere to the previous investment logic: 1) real estate policy is still tightening, the growth rate of manufacturing industry is not changing, and infrastructure will become an important player under the counter-cyclical adjustment.

  According to the investment data released in September last week, generalized infrastructure recovered weakly for two consecutive months, gradually increasing the growth rate by 0.

25 pp to 3.

49%; 2) The transportation sector is an important focus of this round of infrastructure restoration. The “Western Land and Sea New Corridor Master Plan”, “An Outline for the Construction of a Powerful Country for Transportation”, “Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of Special Railway Lines” and other documents have been passed.Signal, but the data-side transportation investment has achieved phase growth. We believe that it is mainly due to policy lag and construction progress. Transportation investment is expected to recover from the fourth quarter of this year to the first quarter of next year. 3) The company has abundant orders and new high-speed growth.With more blossoms, the company is expected to be repaired through the expected improvement in infrastructure.

  Earnings forecast and rating: We maintain our company’s EPS forecast for 2019-2021.

51, 1.

68, 1.

85 yuan, calculated PE is 6x, 6x, 5x.

Infrastructure continued to recover, benefiting from gradual investment, the company’s single-quarter order growth rate reached a new high in recent years, and overlapping orders ensured stable growth in the next few years; we believe that infrastructure recovery and high order growth have brought expected repairs, Give 2020 target PE is 8 times, raise target price to 13.

2 yuan, at the same time raised to “strong push” level.

  Risk reminder: The macro economy fails to meet expectations, the infrastructure growth rate does not meet expectations, and the project advancement fails to meet expectations.

Posted in 按摩