Yanghe shares (002304): Proportion outside the province continued to increase and proactively adjusted to deal with competition

Event: The company achieved operating income of 159 in the first half of 2019.

99 ‰, an increase of 10 per year.

11%; net profit attributable to mother is 55.

82 ppm, an increase of 11 per year.

42%.

Q2 revenue was 51.

09 million yuan, an annual increase of 1.

98%; Q2 net profit attributable to mother is 15.

61 ppm, a 10-year increase2.

03%.

Active destocking adjustments affected revenue, and the proportion of revenue outside the province further increased the company’s Q2 revenue51.

09 yuan, an annual increase of 2.

0%, the growth rate fell earlier 四川耍耍网 than Q1, mainly due to 1) Haitian series of old and new packaging alternated, the price instability led to increased inventory in the province, the company actively adjusted the scheduling rhythm in the province in May / June.

2) The competition in the province has intensified, and some sub-high-end market shares have been snatched by competing products.

Especially the blue price band of the sea, losing market share.

Accounts received in advance for the second quarter of 201917.

79 trillion, down 1 from the previous month.

94 million, taking into account changes in advance receipts, Q2 sales received 49.

0 billion, down 12 a year.

2%.

From a regional perspective, the proportion of revenue outside the province has further increased, and the company achieved 80 in the province in the first half of 2019.

72 ppm, a ten-year increase2.

99%.

Realized income outside the province 79.

26 ppm, an increase of 18 in ten years.

2%.

Provincial revenue share increased to 49.

5%, an increase of 3 per year.

44 points.

The gross profit margin dropped slightly, and the suspension of stocks affected operating cash flow. From the perspective of terminal research, Dream Blue grew faster than Hai Blue and Sky Blue.

Driven by the gross profit margin of Q1, the company’s gross profit margin was 70 in the first half of the year.

9%, a decline of 0 per year.

6pct, with Q1 falling by more than 2.

5ptc, Q2 exceeded the increase of 2.

8 points.

Expense rate during 2019Q2 is 20.

9%, an increase of 2 per year.

17pct, of which the selling expense ratio is 13.18%, up 1 every year.

77ptc, from an absolute point of view, the growth of two core expenditures, advertising and promotional costs, and staff budgets, drives the increase in sales expenses.

Management expense rate 8.

10%, a decline of 0 every year.

14pct; financial expense ratio is 0.

44%, rising by 0 every year.

4pct.

The net operating cash flow of the company in Q2 2019 decreased by 171.

69%, historically, Q2’s operating cash flow is regularly negative every year, mainly due to the company’s payment rhythm and rebate policy.

At the same time, Q2’s continuous shutdown also affected cash flow.

Multiple reforms have been carried out to channel inventory. The distributor is actively making multiple reforms. The company is currently implementing multiple reforms and actively responding to market competition, including the establishment of a brand division, strengthening the development of group purchase customers, and a more complete process for performance evaluation.

Beginning in May this year, the company carried out cargo control and destocking for the province’s inland sea and sky series to clean up channel inventory.

In June, it further controlled the cargo and reduced the terminal inventory.

Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, the company adjusted the channel rebate policy of the Hai series, increased the gross profit of the Hai series channels, and promoted the promotion of dealer sales.

At present, the dealers have basically completed the Mid-Autumn Festival, and the payment is more active.

At the same time, the company continued to vigorously promote Dream Blue, and also actively listed high-priced products such as head row wine to lay out high-end markets, and the trend of product structure upgrade gradually continued.

Earnings forecast According to the company’s initial goals, the company plans to increase its operating income by more than 12% in 2019, and the corresponding revenue target is 270.

9.5 billion.

At present, the company has not adjusted its performance targets and is still working on market adjustment in the second half of the year.

We are optimistic about the company’s potential to continuously upgrade its product structure in the trend of high-end liquor and its ability to continuously increase market share in the national layout. It is predicted that the company will enter the adjustment period in 2019, and the expense will be higher in the second half of the year than in the first half.The meeting will initially set a preliminary target and forecast 266 sales revenue in 2019.

76 ppm, an increase of 10 in ten years.

42%, net profit attributable to mother is 90.

52 ppm, an increase of 11 years.

55%, achieving EPS 6.

01 yuan, the current expected corresponding 19 times the valuation.

Given a 23x target estimate, the target price is 138.

23 yuan, maintain BUY rating.

Risks suggest that economic volatility has an impact on sub-high-end consumption, the company’s out-of-province market expansion has fallen short of expectations, and intensified market competition has led to substitution of market share.

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