Month: May 2020
Wanda Film’s (002739) First Coverage Report: Industry growth initially puts pressure on company performance and develops the entire industry chain to boost future growth
The film market is growing rapidly, the company’s performance is under pressure, and it will lay out upstream to strengthen synergy. In the fierce competition in the industry, the company achieved operating income of 140.
88 ppm, a six-year increase of 6.
49%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies12.
95 ‰, a decrease of 14 per year.
As the movie industry enters a medium-speed growth stage, the country ‘s movie box office is likely to maintain a growth rate of about 10% in the next few years, and the adjustment period of the cinema industry has not yet ended.
As the industry leader, Wanda Films is affected by the industry 杭州夜网论坛 environment and its performance growth index.
Wanda Films began to distribute upstream, acquire Wanda Films, optimize costs and improve operational efficiency, and exert synergy effects across the industry chain. It is expected to boost overall performance growth in the future.
The concentration of the cinema industry continued to increase, M & A and restructuring accelerated, and Wanda’s leader resettled and consolidated. The top ten cinemas in 2018 replaced 68.
7% share, growing by 1 every year.
1%, the market concentration tends to increase.
Wanda Cinema Line is 76.
Box office of 90,000 yuan (excluding service charge), 13.
The market share of 6% ranked first, and the market share rose by more than 0.
5%, stable in the eaves of the dragon head.
With the increase of theater operating difficulties, a large number of cinemas and theaters have closed down, large-scale theater companies have gone bankrupt, and the State Film Bureau has issued a document to encourage theater mergers and acquisitions. The industry merger and reorganization has accelerated, and leading theater companies are expected to continue to benefit in the future.
Wanda Film & TV integration will be completed in 2019 to improve operational efficiency and continue to increase non-ticket revenue.
In 2019, the company will join the integration of Wanda Film and Television in organizational structure, personnel and business, and comprehensively upgrade to become a full industry chain company.
At the cinema line, the company will actively expand while ensuring the quality and profit of the cinema, and strengthen the first cinema line terminal advantage.
On the content side, the company will link up various parts of the business to give full play to the synergies and ensure that the film and television completes its annual goals as planned.
In terms of non-box office revenue, the company will continue to explore innovative operations, actively explore differentiated operations, expand derivatives and coffee business development efforts, strengthen the ability to develop high-quality content, and continue to increase non-box office revenue.
We are optimistic about the company’s overall industrial chain integration and leading regional advantages. For the first time, we will give a “recommended” rating. We predict that Wanda Film’s revenue in 2019-2021 will be 154.
28 ppm, 168.
3.6 billion, 185.
54 ppm, a ten-year increase of 9.
20%; net profit attributable to mothers is 14 respectively.
5.4 billion, 16.
6.3 billion, 19.
56 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.
60%; corresponding to 2019-2021, the EPS is 0.
83 yuan, 0.
94 yuan, 1.
We are optimistic about the company’s integration of the entire industry chain and the advantages of leading companies.
Risk warning: economic downside risks; policy risks.
Xinhecheng (002001): Low demand leads to lower vitamin prices than expected Q3 performance
Investment highlights: The company released the third quarter report for 2019: the first three quarters achieved operating income of 57.
6.6 billion (-14% year-on-year.
2%), net profit attributable to mother 17.
0.6 billion (-32 compared to the same period last year).
8%), net profit after deduction is 15
99 million yuan (-34 compared with the same period last year).
Of which Q3 operating income was 18.
9.8 billion (YoY -8.
2% quarter to quarter -6.
5%), net profit attributable to mother 5.
5 billion (+14 compared to the same period last year).
4%), net profit after deduction is 5
4.3 billion (+ 30% year-on-year.
0%, QoQ -5.
The performance was lower than market expectations, mainly due to the traditional off-season incorporation of swine fever in the third quarter to affect domestic vitamin demand, and at the same time, the VE price rose less than expected.
The drop in vitamin prices led to a decrease in revenue and gross profit margin. The weak demand in Q3 caused the performance to decline sequentially.
In the reporting quarter, the company’s revenue and net profit decreased by at least a part, mainly due to the decline in the prices of the main vitamin products VA and VE last year.About 54%, 31%; At the same time, the domestic swine fever epidemic caused a rapid decline in the number of live pigs, which adversely affected downstream feed demand.
Affected by the fall in product prices, the gross profit margin for the first three quarters of sales was 46.
8%, a decline of 9 per year.
In Q3, the average price of vitamins A and E in the third quarter was about 371, 49 yuan / kg, which was an increase of about 1%, 4%, and Q3 gross profit margin was 47.
3%, a small increase of 0 from the previous month.
However, the third quarter is the traditional off-season, and at the same time, the hog inventory has continued 成都桑拿网 to decline, and Q3 has decreased by about 20% from Q2. Therefore, the replacement amount of vitamin products is expected to decrease from the previous month, and the net profit of non-after-mother will be slightly offset from the previous month.
In terms of expense ratios, the report stated that the company’s period expense ratio was 14.
0%, an increase of 2 a year.
2 pct, in which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense ratios were increased by approximately 0.
The financial expense rate increased rapidly, mainly due to the additional increase in the company’s index costs, which increased by about 75 million yuan, of which short-term expenses increased by 18.
3 ppm to 34.
300 million, long-term loans increased by 28 each year.
100 million to 32.10,000 yuan.
The price 苏州夜网论坛 of VA is volatile, and the price of VE structure is expected to rebound in the long run.
Due to the high barriers of key intermediate citral and its own synthetic process, VA has maintained six companies worldwide for more than a decade, and its layout is very stable.
Due to the constant problems of old BASF equipment and the incorporation of supplies, it is expected that the price of VA products is expected to maintain a central shock of 300-400 yuan / kg.
In the VE industry, DSM acquired Nent Technology VE and related intermediate assets as expected. Nent Technology has now entered the phase of production suspension and upgrading.
DSM’s integration of the VE industry is expected to return to the oligopoly pattern in the future, and then the impact of swine fever will gradually weaken, downstream demand will pick up, and the price of vitamin products is expected to resume its growth trend.
The company is the leader of VA and VE. Within 1 hour of VA powder production capacity, 4 VE powder production capacity is inserted. The advantage of industrial chain integration is obvious, fully benefiting from the price increase, each increase in product price by 10 yuan / kg, increase net profit by 0.
Construction in progress is growing, and continuous capital expenditure growth is the foundation for long-term growth.
The company’s construction in progress reached 79 at the end of the reporting period.
700 million yuan, an increase of 126 over the beginning of the year.
7%, an increase of 25 from the first half of the report.
9%, mainly due to the report that the long-term annual production of 25 methionine projects, the first phase of the Shandong Industrial Park project, and the construction of Heilongjiang biological fermentation project.
At present, Shandong VE project and Heilongjiang biological fermentation project have entered the trial production stage.
The company’s continuous consumption and long-term growth in the fields of nutrition products, flavors and fragrances, new materials break through the foundation, and it will stand next to the international giant DSM in the future.
Investment suggestion: As the price of vitamins rises less than expected, the profit forecast is lowered, and net profit is expected to return to mothers in 2019-21.
10,000 yuan (original value 30.
4.2 billion), corresponding to EPS 1.
72 yuan, PE 19X, 15X, 12X.
Maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk reminder: Vitamin product price rises less than expected, new projects put into production progress and benefits are less than expected
The agency said
The coming of the first wave of resumption and production to affect the geometry?
The agency said
Original title: The first wave of resumption of work resumes, affecting the geometry?
The agency said this: FireWire Interpretation: In response to the new pneumonia epidemic, on January 26, the State Council issued a notice to extend the Spring Festival holiday to February 2. Since then, provinces and cities have adjusted their holiday arrangements accordingly.
In the case that the epidemic risk has not been eliminated, the regulations on the time for resumption of work have been delayed, which mainly depends on the extent of the local impact of the epidemic.) And Wenzhou (not earlier than 24:00 on February 17th), most provinces and cities have stipulated that the time for enterprises outside the required industries to resume work must not be earlier than 24:00 on February 9th, that is, to be released from February 10th.Time to resume work.
Policy Orientation: Many ministries and commissions have issued documents in support of resumption of production. From this week, the climax of resumption of production and production has ushered in various places.
On the basis of the promulgation of a large number of policies in the early stage to ensure that the enterprises have survived the epidemic, the central departments continued to issue a large number of policies.
While strengthening the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, it will help enterprises resume work and resume production in many aspects such as finance, taxation, transportation, and government services.
On February 3, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau convened a meeting to emphasize that it is necessary to fully support and organize the promotion of various production enterprises to resume work and production on the premise of good prevention and control.
The State Council ‘s joint prevention and control mechanism has also issued a notice calling for the co-ordination of plans for the resumption of production by categories and batches.
On February 12, the Standing Committee of the Politburo held a meeting again, emphasizing the need to “coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development” to minimize the impact of epidemic prevention and control work in non-epidemic prevention and control areas on the people ‘s production and life.
On February 15, the three departments including the Municipal Supervision Bureau issued the “Ten Articles on Supporting Resumption of Work and Resumption of Production” to simplify the formalities for enterprises to resume work.
The CBRC issued the “Notice on Further Improving Financial Services for Epidemic Prevention and Control”, requiring financial support for companies such as health care, important material production, transportation and logistics, increasing loans for manufacturing, strengthening supply chain financial services, and improvingThe “first loan ratio” of micro enterprises and the proportion of credit loans reduce the comprehensive financing cost of small and micro enterprises.
The Ministry of Agriculture and other three departments issued the “Emergency Notice on Resolving Current Practical Difficulties and Speeding Up the Resumption of Production and Resumption of Production in the Aquaculture Industry”, requiring that, except for cities with severe epidemics such as Wuhan, localities should allow feed and livestock slaughtering and processing enterprises to resume work, and should not set restrictions on review and approvalcondition.
On February 16, the General Administration of Customs issued 10 measures to support foreign trade enterprises to speed up the resumption of production.
“Seeking Truth” magazine published important articles, stating that “we still have to adhere to this year’s economic and social development goals and tasks, all tasks and objectives set by the Party Central Committee must be completed”, “proactively promote the resumption of production and resume production of enterprises,” “promote the construction of major projects”.
The key to achieving economic development goals is to be able to resume work smoothly and return production to normal levels as soon as possible.
In the latest research report released by Chief Analyst Zhang Yu of Huachuang Securities, the policy response in the fight against the “epidemic” in the past month was roughly divided into three phases: Phase I: January 20 to February 2: The epidemic was comprehensivebreak out.
The policy focuses on epidemic prevention and control and people’s livelihood protection.
Phase 2: February 3 to February 8: The epidemic is entering a confrontation period, and the inflection point is difficult to judge.
The policy focuses on fiscal and financial development. On the one hand, it supports the production of key material enterprises for the prevention and control of the epidemic, on the other hand, it stabilizes employment and helps small and medium-sized enterprises affected by the epidemic to weather the crisis.
Phase 3: February 9 to February 15: The epidemic situation has entered a stage of differentiation, and there are obvious signs of improvement outside Hubei Province.
This stage of the policy is to support the resumption of work and production and stabilize the economy.
Progress of resumption of work: The epidemic prevention materials and basic security industry will resume work first, and the rate of resumption of work in the construction industry needs to be increased. According to statistics from Huatai Securities, the pace of resumption of work in the industry varies due to the impact of the epidemic and the nature of the industry.
The reinstatement of the epidemic prevention materials and basic security industry is early and the reinstatement rate is high. On the 11th, the reinstatement rate of masks was 94%.
On the 12th, the resumption rate of petroleum and petrochemical enterprises was 96.
8%, and the resumption rate of power generation companies is 83%.
According to the SASAC, construction enterprises are constrained by employment, materials, and transportation, and there is still room for improvement in the rate of return to work.
All localities will advance in the order of “Key projects for people’s livelihood in infrastructure construction> General people’s livelihood in resettlement housing> Real estate and other projects”.
The pace of resumption of work is also very different in different places. On the 12th, the rate of resumption of state-owned enterprises in Beijing reached 99.
7%, Zhejiang Province is 79% of the resumption of security enterprises.
For industrial calibers above the designated size, on the 14th, the resumption rate in Guangzhou reached 87%, while in Shenzhen it was only 30%.
On February 18, the State Council Office held a press conference on the support of central enterprises for the protection and prevention of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Regarding the resumption of production and production of central enterprises, Ren Hongbin, deputy director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, stated that according to preliminary statistics, the operating rate of more than 20,000 major production-type subsidiaries of central enterprises under the supervision of the SASAC has exceeded 80%.
The other part is not due to the severe epidemic situation in some areas, and the enterprises are not yet ready to start.
Operating rates in industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, telecommunications, power grids, and transportation have exceeded 95%, and some have reached 100%.
Focusing on epidemic prevention and control in one hand, and economic and social development in another. By summing up the current industry start-up situation, Haitong Securities has drawn two basic conclusions: First, the upstream industry is generally better than the downstream.
As some of the upstream raw material industries do not stop during the Spring Festival, the load rate has not dropped significantly, and the number of returning personnel has no significant effect on downstream industries that have not stopped during the Spring Festival. Therefore, the upstream industry is generally better than downstream. Second, the slow return to work of enterprises mainly comes from the two major factors of transportation and demand reduction.
The reason for the slow resumption of industrial enterprises is that, of course, it is related to the 南京桑拿网 current traffic restrictions. It is difficult to obtain sufficient guarantees for the raw materials required for some production, and it is objectively restored by the production schedule. It is equally important that due to the epidemic situation,Prevention and control measures are still tight, and business activities have not started normally. Even if raw material transportation and production capacity can meet the conditions, the downstream demand leads to a passive backlog of inventory. Therefore, the resumption of car dealerships is only about 20%.Downstream is also difficult to digest normally, which is why some raw material manufacturing industries such as steel and chemical industries have contracted production after the festival.
The agency believes that judging from the current epidemic situation, the number of supplementary confirmed cases in the country except Hubei has been declining continuously. After the epidemic situation in the non-Hubei region is stable, the level of traffic control can be appropriately reduced, and enterprises can be resumed as soon as possible.To reduce the economic impact of the epidemic.
Hua Chuang Securities analyst Zhang Yu also said that the supply of masks is the key to effective resumption of work.
At present, the daily supply of masks is about 1 billion. After deducting the medical and transportation industries, only 40 million are needed, and about 60 million are left for “secondary production”. Compared with 200 million “secondary production” employed people, the return rate isUp to 30% -40%.
In addition, Zhang Yu said that affected by the epidemic, the catering, accommodation, travel agency and other industries are facing a short-term monopoly in the industry.
She suggested that the supply side should be maintained in the current season so that companies would not die, and banks should be provided with credit to ease the cash flow pressure of related industries.
In the second and third quarters, if these industries are re-produced and profitable, the government must consider that they can no longer levy income taxes as scheduled, and should give some relief to allow companies to have a period of time and space to rest and rest.
Shanxi Securities said that from the perspective of comprehensive indicators, the resumption of work continued to fall short of expectations, but it is certain that the resumption of work has begun.
At present, the scale of migrants after the holiday is less than the last 30%, and the high-speed traffic is comparable to that after the peak of the Spring Festival last year. There has been an attempted momentum in the traffic at the transportation hub. The rate of resumption of work began from February 15 to February 17, but the speed was slow.
The agency believes that the epidemic is definitely the focus of the current market attention, but the logic behind determining the market’s mid-term operating trend is still fundamentals and liquidity.
The epidemic depresses production and demand, and the fundamentals of corporate profits will inevitably deteriorate. However, driven by the easing of monetary and credit policies, the risk-free interest rate and credit spread will decline, which is more conducive to the performance of equity assets. This is also the round of growth.Main motivation.
In the vacuum period of macro data and corporate profit data, the actual impact of economic scale is difficult to quantify, and it is easier for the market to play structural trading opportunities under the background of loose liquidity and marginal improvement of the epidemic trend.
Electronics industry: CDB pointed out that most of the component manufacturers are labor-intensive, and the resumption of work and accumulation of production capacity are affected to a certain extent in the short term, and raw material supply, logistics and transportation are also under short-term pressure, but it began on February 10.All have entered the orderly resumption and production phase. The supply chain leaders have relatively too many guarantees, and the heavy demand for conversion is expected to usher in a situation of alternatives.
Food and beverage industry: According to Huachuang Securities, a large number of companies in the industry are focusing on epidemic prevention and control, and resume work and resume production.
Judging from the feedback from mainstream companies and channels, basically this week, the companies have basically resumed work. Liquor companies have entered the production resumption and production resumption stage. People’s livelihood essential enterprises represented by dairy products and meat products have resumed work. Some companies have resumed work during the Spring Festival.Fully guarantee production and supply.
Transportation industry: According to a research report by Shanxi Securities, long-term express delivery has resumed, supported by several hundreds of millions of support funds, and the epidemic has stimulated the transfer of shopping demand from offline to online, which has increased the demand for express logistics, and added toll roads to temporarily waive tolls to promote logistics.The logistics industry leaders who have reduced transportation costs, improved channels and stable business sources are trying to benefit from it.
Military industry: Wanlian Securities said that most of the military enterprises have resumed their operations in order, and the impact of the epidemic is small. Due to the high concentration and stickiness of customers in the industry and the extremely high technical barriers, it is expected that orders will not be greatly affected and the supply will be relatively stable.
Light Industry: Shanxi Securities Research reported that the light industry began to resume work on February 10.
According to research, most factories and physical stores have resumed construction on February 10, which is estimated to be 8-10 days longer than in previous years.
Large-scale enterprises have comprehensively launched online marketing and launched dealer support subsidy programs.
Ping An Bank (000001): Debt costs and retail non-performing loans decrease sequentially
Event On October 21, Ping An Bank announced its 2019 third quarter performance report, in which operating income increased by 18 per year.
80%, net profit attributable to mothers increases by 15 per year.
Brief Comment 1. The single quarter growth rate of revenue and net profit was slightly higher than the previous quarter, but still maintained a high growth rate. The first three quarters of 2019 revenue was 1029.
580,000 yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.
80%; net profit attributable to mother 236.
21 ppm, an increase of 15 in ten years.
From a single quarter point of view, 3Q revenues increase by 19 per year.
39%, an increase of 1 over the previous quarter.
62 averages; 3Q net profit increased by 16.
01%, an increase of 1 over the previous quarter.
In terms of revenue structure, net interest income increased by 21.
53%, net non-interest income increases by 14 per year.
From the perspective of profit breakdown, net profit attributable to mothers increased by 31 in the third quarter.
6.5 billion, of which 57 revenues increase each year.
06 ‰; operating expenses increase by 17.
74 ppm; retina increases by 3 per second.
Profitability doubled slightly.
The statutory annualized ROE for the March 2019 quarter reached 12.
64%, an increase of 4bp over the same period last year.
The EPS is 1.
32 yuan / share, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.
The BVPS is 13.
82 yuan / share, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.
2, █ Net income rises 21 each year.
53%, the net interest margin rose 27bp compared to the initial period, the first three quarters of 2019 net interest income 662.
69 ppm, an increase of 21 per year.
53%; 64% of total revenue.
37%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.
Mainly due to the increase in loan size and the recovery of net interest margin.
In the first 3 quarters, the NIM was 2.
62%, flat at the end of the second quarter and an increase of 27bp earlier.
Among them, the interest-earning asset yield is 5.
21%, an increase of 10bp per year, mainly because the loan interest rate increased by 27bp.
Interest-bearing debt cost ratio 2.
67%, a previous decline of 23bp, mainly due to peer denial and response to the significant drop in bond cost rates of 75bp and 92bp; deposit balances rose slightly by 6bp to 2.
48%, of which the balance of structured deposits is 5095.
US $ 6.1 billion, an increase of US $ 70.6 billion compared with the end of the previous two quarters. It is expected that under the policy supervision of the “Notice on Regulating Structured Deposits” in the fourth quarter, the balance of structured deposits will improve, leading to a reduction in the cost of savings.
Non-interest income in the first three quarters of 2019 was 366.
89 ‰, an increase of 14 per year.
17%; including 278 net fees and commission income.
31 ppm, an increase of 17 per year.
41%; 27% of total revenue.
03%, a decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.
3. The non-performing ratio remained stable, and the provision coverage ratio increased significantly. The loans and advances in the first three quarters were consolidated2.
15 trillion yuan, an increase of 7 from the beginning of the year.
69%, the balance of non-performing loans was 361.
2.7 billion, an increase of 12 over the beginning of the year.
2.2 billion, bad consequences1.
68%, which was flat at the end of the earlier quarter and fell 7bp earlier.
Concerned loans accounted for 19Q3 2.
39%, down 9bp and 19bp respectively from the end and the first two quarters.
Provision coverage in the first three quarters was 186.
18%, an increase of 30 from the beginning of the year.
The ratio of loan to loan in the first three quarters was three.
13%, an increase of 0 from the beginning of the year.
4. The current capital adequacy ratio has increased due to the compulsory conversion of convertible bonds. By the end of the third quarter of 2019, the core tier one, tier one and capital adequacy ratios were 9, respectively.
54% and 13.
36%, a change of 121bp, 115bp, and 186bp from the beginning of the year; mainly because Ping An Bank’s 26 billion convertible bonds triggered compulsory redemption clauses in the third quarter.
5. The proportion of retail loans continued to increase, and the retail non-performing ratio decreased by 2bp from the end of the second quarter. At the end of the third quarter, Ping An Bank consolidated loans and advances by 21511.
670,000 yuan, an increase of 7 from the end of last year.
7%, of which retail loans accounted for 59.
2%, an increase of 0 at the end of the previous quarter and the end of the previous year.
4 and 1.
4 units, retail loan NPL ratio 1.
07%, which was 2bp lower at the end of the earlier quarter and remained stable earlier.
Among them, the balances of housing mortgage loans, new loans, auto finance loans, credit cards and other types of retail loans changed earlier respectively4.
66% and 38.
76%, auto finance loans were mainly affected by the downturn in the auto industry this year; except for other types of 杭州桑拿 retail loan non-performing ratios, which rose significantly to 60bp, other retail loan business non-performing ratios all increased slightly by 3bp to 19bp earlier.
The number of retail AUM and retail customers is 1.
87 trillion and 93.66 million households, an increase of 32% and 12% respectively over the beginning of the year.
6. Investment recommendations From the March quarterly results of March 2019, Ping An Bank’s revenue and return to net profit have maintained a high growth rate; the return on assets has risen and the cost of losses has driven NIM to rise, and asset quality continues to rise in loan yieldsAt the same time, it maintained stability, in which the retail transformation continued to deepen, and the proportion of retail loans continued to increase.
We have just released Ping An Bank’s in-depth report, “Apparent Improvement, and Estimates of Conversion.” We believe that Ping An’s improvement is reflected in three aspects: First, the increase in the placement of corporate loans will reduce the cost ratio on the debt side.
The compulsory conversion of 26 billion convertible bonds will increase the capital adequacy ratio by about 1%. After the increase of core tier one capital, Ping An will increase the issuance of public debt. Under the strategic arrangement of fine-tuning the public, it has a strong ability to derive public debt deposits and depositsThe pressure on the debt side has eased, and the debt-side cost rate will decline steadily, which is expected to be seen in the annual report.
Second, the income side will also rise steadily, and the growth rate of net profit will exceed expectations.
The proportion of retail loans reached 59%, high yields can be maintained, and through retail distribution volume reduction, structure optimization, risk reduction, and risk will be reduced.
The revenue side will rise steadily in the future.
Third, the asset side will also improve steadily.
All loans overdue for 90 days are counted as non-performing loans. In the future, the proportion of overdue loans in total loans will also decline steadily, the risk of stocks will continue to decline, and the asset side will improve significantly.
Therefore, no matter it is the cost side, the income side or the asset side, Ping An Bank can see improvement.
These will be reflected in the recovery of ROE, and ROE is expected to reset 12.
4% rebounded to about 14%, raising its valuation.
The company’s 2019 PB estimates are currently undervalued.
Short-term market prices and their retail non-performing ratios, compensation costs, and other issues, these reductions will be significantly alleviated, and Ping An’s estimates will rise steadily.
We forecast a 19-year growth in operating income of 19/20.
51% / 22.
22%, net profit increases by 16 every year.
02% / 17.
62%, earnings per share were 1.
75 yuan, BVPS is 14.
91 yuan, PE is 11.
68, PB is 1.
06, maintain BUY rating, 6-month target price maintained at 22 yuan.
Comment on the recent situation of Aerospace Changfeng (600天津夜网 855)
The company is the main listed platform affiliated to the 2 Academy of Aerospace Science and Industry Group. Its main business is positioned in three major sectors: security technology, medical equipment, and electronic information. The successful completion of Aerospace Parker and the acquisition of Space Aerospace further enhanced its core competitiveness.The company gave full play to the role of capital operation platform of listed companies and actively carried out mergers and acquisitions and transfers around the industrial chain to achieve further concentration of the company’s main business.In 2018, the company achieved an operating income growth of 40 in ten years.31% to 21.1 ppm, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-profits increased by 847 per year.8% to 0.6.2 billion.The synergy effect of the company’s capital operation is prominent. The security technology business market has broad prospects, and the company has a leading layout with obvious advantages.According to the “2018-2023 China Security Industry Market Outlook and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report”, it is predicted that by 2023, the security industry market size will exceed one trillion.As a leading marketer and service provider with overall strength in the domestic related market, the company will fully benefit from industry growth. The pace of securitization of military assets has accelerated, and the company intends to acquire Chaoyang Power.After the completion of the transaction, the company will 西安耍耍网restore the integration of the target company’s manufacturing capabilities, technical resources, market resources and human resources, especially to form business synergy with the existing UPS and EPS power business of the listed company, forming an industrial structure with a more reasonable layout, More product types, more diverse business areas. Profit forecast and estimation: We expect that the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 will be 0.35, 0.49, 0.63 yuan, corresponding to dynamic price-earnings ratio of 39.1, 28.1, 21.9 times.Be cautious of “overweight” rating. Risk warning: operating performance is lower than expected; risk of major asset restructuring approval; military-civilian integration, mixed reform related policy risks; high-risk assessment of the company.
Weiming Environmental Protection (603568): 18 years performance growth and growth optimistic about future growth space
I. Event Overview The company released the 2018 annual report: 2018 operating income15.
47 ppm, an increase of 50 in ten years.
29%; net profit attributable to mother 7.
40,000 yuan, an increase of 46 in ten years.
01%; EPS is 1.
08 yuan / share, an annual increase of 45.
Second, the analysis and judgment of the company ‘s profits have increased significantly, and equipment sales have become the main contribution point.
1) The company’s main business is the operation of waste incineration projects, leakage treatment, kitchen waste treatment, equipment sales and technical services, and waste removal.
Among them, project operation income accounts for 64% of total income.
5%, an increase of 15 in 2018.
26%, contributing about 25.
The total operating income increased by 5%, and the growth of the project operation business mainly increased to the increase in the scale of waste incineration brought by the new commissioning projects in 2017 and 2018: the Cangnan project was commissioned at the end of 2017, the Wuyi project, and the Ruian project phase IIThe Wannian project was successfully concurrently run in September, October, and November 2018, and was trial run.
Therefore, in 2018, the total amount of domestic garbage storage in all projects was 424.
36 for the first time, growing by 14 per year.
59%, completed the grid-connected power generation12.
9.1 billion degrees, an increase of 14 in ten years.
96% contributed to the growth of carbonization revenue.
Equipment sales and technical services accounted for 32 of total operating income.
89%, an increase of 264 in 2018.
56%, contributed 71.
38% of total operating income increased; overall, leakage treatment business accounted for 0 of total revenue.
4%, an increase of 24.
7%; kitchen waste disposal business accounts for total revenue1.
66%, an increase of 28.
83%, the company handles kitchen waste 10 in total.
52, an increase of 53.
6%; In 2018, the company newly added garbage transfer transportation business and completed the removal of 14385 fences for domestic garbage, with business income accounting for 0% 成都桑拿网 of total revenue.
56%, this business mainly gradually the company in the new year of 2018 six garbage transportation contracts.
2) The cost of the company’s main business increased by 54.
18%, slightly higher than the main business revenue growth rate, mainly due to Cangnan Weiming’s formal operations and equipment sales and technical services increased.
From the perspective of cost composition, project operation, leakage treatment, kitchen waste disposal, and equipment sales cost accounted for 76% of the main business cost.
96% / 0.
82% / 3.
43% / 18.
Among them, the cost of project operations increased by 6.
At 18%, the cost of leaked plasma processing business increased by 24.
7%, the cost of food waste treatment business increased by 18.
52%, equipment sales business costs increased by 248.
The growth rate of the cost of each business is lower than the average growth rate of revenue, which indicates that under the circumstances of business operations, continuous improvement and optimization, and profitability.
The performance of Zhejiang Province has increased significantly, but the business outside the province has improved, and it continues to consolidate its leading position in Zhejiang Province.
In terms of business areas, Weiming’s environmental protection business is mainly concentrated in Zhejiang Province.
Provincial business income accounts for 90% of total revenue.
1%, less than 10% outside the province.
At the same time, the substantial increase in performance in 2018 mainly expanded business growth in the province.
81%, while revenues outside the province decreased by 3.
11%, the increase in business within the province contributed to the growth of total revenue and the consolidation of business substitution outside the province.
From a cost perspective, although the province’s business revenue grew rapidly, the cost growth exceeded revenue growth by 10 percentage points, resulting in a decline in gross profit margin2.
18%, on the contrary, the cost of operations outside the province has dropped by 14.
81%, an increase of 5.
46% gross profit margin.
From the perspective of the entire industry market, Weiming Environmental Protection’s share of the domestic waste incineration treatment market fell from 5% to 4 from 2015 to 2017.
38%, and in Zhejiang Province, the market share began on 29th of 2015.
97% increased to 35 in 2017.
85%, the level of the provincial leaders is basically consolidated, but the company’s long-term development still needs to pay attention to the expansion of business outside the province.
In 2019, the company’s profit is expected to continue to grow, and the domestic market has plenty of room.
It is expected that Weiming Environmental Protection’s 2019 performance will continue to grow, mainly due to the commissioning of newly built projects in 2018, Wuyi Project, Ruian Project Phase II, and Wannian Project, which were successfully connected to the grid for power generation in September, October, and November 2018, respectively.Promote trial operation; Jieshou project began to enter garbage and realized grid-connected power generation in February 2019.
The company has achieved fruitful results in expanding projects. In 2018, the company has a total of 11 domestic waste incineration projects and waste transportation projects, and 9 food waste treatment and leakage treatment projects. These projects will bring to the company in the future.Business with big gains.
At the same time, the macro-environment is improving, the nation’s scale-up deployment of the ecological environment, and the construction of “no waste cities” will bring considerable potential for the entire solid waste treatment market.
At the same time, the increase in project contracts will also lead to an increase in future costs, but overall, Weiming Environmental Protection has a better revenue growth momentum in the future and ample market space.
Third, profit forecasting and investment advice As the nation’s leading solid waste treatment company, the company’s expected performance in 2019 will continue to increase. The main profit growth will gradually increase the operating income brought by new and future projects. It should be noted that there are more future construction projects.Significant cost increases and increased costs for existing projects.
Thanks to the favorable domestic policies, environmental protection industries such as solid waste treatment will have breakthrough development space in the future. It is expected that the EPS for 2019-2021 will be 1.
72 yuan, currently expected to correspond to 20/17/15 times PE, give a “buy” rating.
Fourth, risks indicate that the project construction is not as good as expected; the progress of new project signing in the future is unfavorable; low-price competition; the on-grid price of waste incineration power generation has fallen.
Daya Icon (000910): Steady growth in performance awaits recovery
Core point of view The first quarter revenue growth in ten years1.
08%, net profit 杭州夜网 attributable to mothers increased by 9 per year.
69% of the company’s operating income in the first quarter of 201914.
1.3 billion (YoY + 1.
08%), mainly due to the rebound in retail sales in March and the continuous advancement of the tooling business.
6.3 billion (+ 9% year-on-year.
Report communique, company gross margin 34.
65%, rising by 0 every year.
62pct, the period expense rate increased by 0 compared with the same period last year.
48 points to 28.
54%, of which the sales expense ratio rose by 0.
24pct to 16.
60%, the management expense ratio decreased by 1.
27 points to 9.
58%, R & D expenses1.
83%, the financial expense ratio decreased by 0.
32pct to 0.
The improvement of the fundamentals and the improvement of the fundamentals of the tooling business in accordance with the trend of hardcover according to our previous report, “Customizing to welcome the midsummer after the cold spring, and greater certainty of the full installation chain,” the actual completion of 2019-2020 is better than 2018, and the expected growth rateAt least 5-10%, meanwhile, the expected contribution of net shutdown area to the real completion exceeds the expected growth rate, helping the furniture industry fundamentals continue to improve.
The all-inclusive policy is expected to increase. According to the statistics of Aowei Cloud Network, the market share of hardwood flooring hardcover companies in the first half of 2018, the iconic flooring to 22.
4% ranked first, and it is expected that the company will continue to benefit from the improvement in the proportion of refined decoration.
Profit forecast and investment logic are optimistic about the company. (1) The engineering business has obvious advantages and continues to benefit from the improvement of the proportion of refined decoration; (2) Delivery warms up and helps the retail end. The Suqian factory is relocated to the maximum accumulation; (3) Expected distribution integrationIt will continue and management improvement can still be expected.
The company’s operating income is expected to be 76 in 2019-2021.
300 million, net profit 四川耍耍网 attributable to mother is 7.
3 ppm, currently sustainable corresponding to 9xPE in 2019. With reference to the average valuation of comparable listed companies, we are optimistic about the company’s future development trend and give a reasonable assessment of 11xPE in 2019, corresponding to a reasonable value of 15.
7 yuan / share, maintain BUY rating.
Risks suggest that the tightening of real estate budget policies may lead to a downturn in the overall prosperity of the furniture industry, the project end growth rate is not up to expectations; management improvement progress is not up to expectations; raw material prices have risen more than expected.
In-depth * Company * Xinhua Insurance (601336): Significant transformation effect In the first year, premium growth rate was nearly 20%
The company released the first quarter of 2019 report, the company achieved net profit attributable to mother 33.
70,000 yuan, an increase of 29 in ten years.
1%; gradually the original insurance premium income was 431.
700 million, an annual increase of 9.
5%; new premiums increased rapidly, and the first-year premiums for long-term insurance in 2019Q1 reached 71.
60,000 yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.
The growth of net profit is affected by the investment end and compensation expenses: 1) The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in Q1 201933.
70,000 yuan, an increase of 29 in ten years.
1%; the growth rate of net profit is lower than expected of the listed peers, and it is expected that the investment end income will be lower than the peers and the expenses of compensation payments will increase.
2019Q1 payouts increase by 68 each year.
6% to 210.
5 billion; 2) The company’s surrender rate in Q1 2019 decreased by 2 year-on-year.
5 up to 0.
6%, benefiting from the transformation of the channel structure, the surrender costs of high-current-price products have been significantly reduced.
It is expected that in the first quarter of 2019, a new type of insurance industry will have a single transition industry, and the channel transformation strategy will have obvious effects: 1) The company’s original insurance premium income gradually increased to 431 in the first quarter.
7 ‰, an increase of 9 in ten years.
5%; the continuous inflow of renewal premiums brought about by the improvement of the product structure, and the pick-up of premium growth in the first year of long-term insurance are the primary reasons for premium growth.
2) The company continues to adhere to the transition strategy of reducing premiums and paying premiums. In Q1 2019, the premiums of premiums will decrease by 41 each year.
0%; 3) It is expected that the growth rate of new individual insurance companies in 2019Q1 can be expected.
According to the company’s disclosed data, the first year of long-term insurance premiums in the first quarter of 2019 reached 71.
60,000 yuan, an increase of 18 in ten years.
Among them, one insurance channel has a long-term insurance premium of 55 in the first year.
20,000 yuan, an increase of 16 in ten years.
1%; premiums for the first year of long-term insurance from bancassurance channels reached 16.
40,000 yuan, an increase of 25 in ten years.
4) The company’s “mainly supplemented” health insurance product structure drives new single premium growth and growth in the industry, and cardio-cerebral-vascular supplementary insurance to meet the needs of various groups.
The performance of the investment side is inferior to that of its peers, and the floating profit is still to be fulfilled: 1) The annualized total investment yield in 2019Q1 is 4.
2%, zero for one year.
It is expected that the annualized total investment yield will be lower than that of listed peers; 2) The company’s equity assets in 2018 totaled 1,160.
600 million, accounting for 14.
3%, it is expected that the company’s equity assets can sell a relatively high proportion of financial assets.
The company’s other comprehensive income in Q1 2019 was 42.
40,000 yuan 上海夜网论坛 (2018Q1 is a floating loss of 8.
100 million), floating profit has not yet reflected in net profit. Risk reminders: The growth rate of insurance premiums for protection-type insurance products is lower than expected; the dual impact of market fluctuations on industry performance and estimates; and the uncertainty of insurance company investment caused by downward interest rates.
Investment suggestion The company deepens the health insurance business, drives the value of new business, and the agent team is stable. It is expected that the premium rhythm in 2019 will continue to be balanced.1.
4% / 3.
1% / 5.
1%, EV growth rate is 13 respectively.
5% / 13.
2% / 14.
The company’s overall 2019 PEV is 0.
94. Maintain the overweight rating.
Baolong Technology (603197) Third 杭州龙凤夜网 Quarterly Report Review: The Parent Company’s Expense Ratio Decreases and the Gross Margin Turning Point Appears
Event: On October 30, 2019, Baolong Technology released the third quarter report of 2019, and achieved total operating revenue of 23 in the third quarter of 2019.
600,000 yuan, an increase of 40 in ten years.
05%, net profit attributable to mother 1.
21 ppm, a decrease of 1 per year.
64%, net profit after deduction to mother 1.
0.6 billion, down by 0 every year.
The company’s operating income reached 8 in the third quarter.
40 ppm, an increase of 53 in ten years.
37%, net profit attributable to mother is 6437.
110,000 yuan, an annual increase of 72.
Key points of the report: Overseas mergers and acquisitions increase performance growth, solid management control of the four fee 都市夜网 levels of the company’s 2019Q3 four rate23.
85%, an increase of 4 over the same period last year.
31 points, and after canceling the cost of the company’s overseas merger and acquisition of assets, the parent company’s four fees replaced 19.
47%, a decrease of 0 compared with the same period last year.
08pct; of which the sales expense ratio is not excluded and the impact of merger and acquisition is 8 respectively.
32% and 8.
20%, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.
89 points and 0.
77pct; management expense ratio is not excluded and the impact of merger and acquisition is 6 respectively.
09% and 4.
97%, an increase of 0 over the same period last year.
93pct and drop 0.
20pct; R & D expense ratio is not excluded and the impact of merger and acquisition is 7 respectively.
89% and 6.
30%, an increase of 1 over the same period last year.
55% and down 0.
16%, after excluding the impact of mergers and acquisitions, the management expenses remained the same as last year; the financial expense ratio increased by 1 compared with the same period last year.
06% reached 1.
55%, mainly due to a total of 1,120 interest expenses and income incurred during the period.
240,000 yuan, merged 1062 financing costs paid for the acquisition of DILL at the end of last year.
Looking at the company’s expense ratio during the third quarter as a whole was 22.
08%, an increase of 0 compared with the same period last year.
96 points; selling expenses 7.
69%, 0 compared with the same period last year.
22pct; the management expense ratio is 0 compared with the same period last year.60pct reaches 5.
47%; except for the R & D expense ratio compared with the same period last year.
01pct reaches 7.
96%; financial expense ratio increased by 1 over the same period last year.
79 points reached 0.
The decline in the parent company’s expense ratio in Q3 2019 also clearly reflects the company’s ability to control the period’s expense ratio.
The gross profit margin increased, expecting a turning point in the performance. The company’s gross profit margin in the third quarter was 32.
1%, an increase of 11.
46%; the company ‘s gross profit margin has continued to increase since the beginning of the year, and the gross profit margin in Q3 2019 increased to 30.
9%, an increase of 0 from the previous period.
7pct; we think the company’s performance is expected to improve in the fourth quarter: 1) the second half of the year may benefit from the start of heavy winter tires in Europe, 2) the after-sales performance of North American companies is good, 3) Q4 with the inflection point of the auto market, driving domestic TPMSrise.
Investment advice and profit forecast We expect the company’s net profit in 2019-2021 to be about 1.
77 ppm, corresponding to PE 25x, 17x, 14x; maintain “Buy” grade.
Risks suggest that the automotive market continues to weaken, and overseas business growth is less than expected.
AVIC Aircraft (000768) incident review: Boeing’s continuous crash market calls for large domestic aircraft
Event: On March 10, an Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737MAX crashed shortly after takeoff, killing all 157 people on board, including 8 Chinese passengers.
This is the second crash after the crash of JAL Airlines on October 29, 2018.
The cause of the accident is still under investigation. The Civil Aviation Administration of China issued a notice requesting that China’s domestic transportation flights suspend commercial operations of Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft before 18:00 on March 11, 2019.
Views: 1. Boeing has frequently encountered new problems. The 103rd domestically produced large aircraft has successfully flown for the first time. This sample is the future main model of the Boeing 737, and its sales in the international market are good.
Boeing 737MAX is a derivative model of Boeing 737 equipped with new engines, including Boeing 737MAX-7, Boeing 737MAX-8, 737MAX-9, 737 MAX-10 and Boeing 737MAX200. The accident is a sample of Boeing 737MAX-8.
Boeing 737 MAX is equipped with the latest LEAP-1B engine, the engine thrust size, more energy-saving, is the fourth generation of the main model of the Boeing 737.
According to reports, as of January 2019, 350 Boeing 737MAX series aircraft have been delivered, and the number of orders has reached 5,077.
Currently, domestic airlines operate a total of 97 Boeing 737MAX-8s.
Affected by the air crash, the safety of Boeing aircraft was questioned, and the company’s prices continued to plummet.
The accident was the second Boeing 737MAX-8 crash in half a year. On October 29, 2018, a Boeing 737MAX-8 aircraft from Lion Air Indonesia flew into the sea shortly after taking off from Jakarta International Airport. All 189 people on boardDied, the plane had just flown for 3 months.
After the accident, although Ethiopian flight safety cannot be ruled out, the safety of the model itself has still encountered great challenges.
The Civil Aviation Administration of China issued a notice requesting that China’s domestic transportation airlines suspend commercial operations of Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft before 18:00 on March 11, 2019.
About 60% of Boeing’s revenue comes from aircraft sales, and the company’s (US stock) advance premarket prices fell by 8%.
If the aircraft ‘s automatic anti-stall system has hidden safety hazards, it will definitely delay the pace of Boeing 737 upgrades and also make way for the large domestic aircraft to make a considerable domestic market.
The cause of the accident is still under investigation. In contrast, large domestic aircraft are conducting test flights in accordance with established procedures.
According to Xinhua News Agency, on December 28, 2018, 103 large-scale C919 domestic passenger planes landed safely at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, successfully completing the first flight, marking a total of three C919 aircraft currently in test flight.
According to Xinhua News, the 104, 105, and 106 test aircraft of the C919 aircraft are undergoing partial assembly and final assembly as planned, and they plan to participate in the test flight certification process next year.
The chief designer of large domestic aircraft said that the C919 large domestic aircraft is expected to obtain an airworthiness certificate in 2021.
2. AVIC Aircraft is the main contractor for large domestically produced aircraft. In the near future, AVIC Aircraft will fully benefit from the main military aviation products business of AVIC Aircraft. The main business includes military aircraft, civil aircraft, international cooperation subcontracting projects, and large aircraft.Airframe structure, as well as aircraft landing gear and braking systems, accounted for more than 94% of its main business revenue.
The company is a supplier of large aircraft structural parts. It undertakes six work packages for C919 large aircraft, including the middle chassis (including the central wing), the outer wing box (including the fixed front and rear edges), the aileron, the trailing edge flaps, and the leading edge.Slats and spoilers.
The C919 belongs to the “medium and short-range dual-engine narrow-body civil transport aircraft” and is a single-aisle medium-sized passenger aircraft. Its adjacent aircraft are the American Boeing B737, European Airbus A320, Canadian Bombardier CS300, and Russian United Aircraft Corporation MS21.
The demand for civil aircraft in China is increasing, and the civil aviation fleet will increase to four times in the next 20 years.
On September 19, 2017, COMAC released the Annual Report of COMAC’s Civil Aircraft Market 2017-2036. It is expected that there will be 8,575 new aircraft demand in the next 20 years. By 2035, the size of the Chinese fleet will reach8,684 aircraft, while the size of China ‘s civil aviation fleet was only 2,370 in 2014, which has nearly quadrupled in 20 years.
In the next 20 years, the total value of passenger aircraft will exceed 2 trillion.
According to the civil aircraft market forecast annual report, there will be 8,575 new aircraft demand by the end of 2034, of which 8232 are large jet airliners and 343 are regional jets.
According to Netease information, the unit price of a large jet passenger aircraft in the spring is about 50 million US dollars, and the unit price of a regional airliner is about 30 million US dollars. This translates into a value of 28,263 civilian aircraft over the next 20 years.
3. Development platform of the company’s strategic and strategic transport aircraft and bomber AVIC aircraft has successively developed Yun-8, Yun-9 and Yun-20 in the field of transport aircraft. Among them, Yun-8 and Yun-9 are still the main models of increasingly transport aircraft.The market space of -20 is huge.
The performance of Yun-20 Il-76 is close to that of C-17.
The development of the Yun-20 refers to the aerodynamic shape and structural design of the Il-76, and incorporates some features 杭州桑拿 of the C-17. It is equipped with a Russian-made four-engine D-30KP turbofan engine (the WS-20 will be gradually replaced in the future) for maximum flight.The weight is 220 tons, and the payload is over 66 tons.
The comprehensive performance of the Yun-20 upstream Il-76 (engine, electronics, load capacity and short-track take-off and landing performance is better), close to the C-17.
The Xinyun-9 was officially equipped with the Air Force in 2012. At the same time, multi-type special aircrafts based on the Yun-9 were also launched in sequence, including Air Police-500, Gaoxin-6 (anti-submarine), Gaoxin-8 (intelligence collection), and Gaoxin-9 (electronic interference), Yun-9 special warfare (special operations) and new high-level aircraft (psychological warfare), most of them have entered the mass production stage.
The company is also an annual strategic bomber development platform.
At present, the main bombing bomb of the country is still the H-6K. However, it is mentioned that the US B2 has the disadvantage of hindering the bomb load and range, and it does not have the stealth capability.
Strategic bombers are scarce, but a new generation of long-range strategic bombers is already under development.
At present, there are sufficient technical reserves for stealth materials and aerodynamic layout. Therefore, mature technologies that can be used in new strategic bombers play a role in boosting fighter performance.
4. Investment suggestions We expect the company’s main operating income for 2018-2020 to be 338, respectively.
45 billion, 390.5.7 billion and 462.
5.0 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 5 respectively.
25 billion, 7.
02 billion and 9.
37 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 0.
19 yuan, 0.
25 yuan and 0.
34 yuan, corresponding to PE is 88 times, 66 times and 49 times respectively, maintaining the company’s “strongly recommended” level.
Risk warning: The development progress of large aircraft is less than expected, and the order and delivery of military aircraft is less than expected.