The agency said

The coming of the first wave of resumption and production to affect the geometry?
The agency said

Original title: The first wave of resumption of work resumes, affecting the geometry?
The agency said this: FireWire Interpretation: In response to the new pneumonia epidemic, on January 26, the State Council issued a notice to extend the Spring Festival holiday to February 2. Since then, provinces and cities have adjusted their holiday arrangements accordingly.
  In the case that the epidemic risk has not been eliminated, the regulations on the time for resumption of work have been delayed, which mainly depends on the extent of the local impact of the epidemic.) And Wenzhou (not earlier than 24:00 on February 17th), most provinces and cities have stipulated that the time for enterprises outside the required industries to resume work must not be earlier than 24:00 on February 9th, that is, to be released from February 10th.Time to resume work.
  Policy Orientation: Many ministries and commissions have issued documents in support of resumption of production. From this week, the climax of resumption of production and production has ushered in various places.
On the basis of the promulgation of a large number of policies in the early stage to ensure that the enterprises have survived the epidemic, the central departments continued to issue a large number of policies.
While strengthening the prevention and control of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, it will help enterprises resume work and resume production in many aspects such as finance, taxation, transportation, and government services.
  On February 3, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau convened a meeting to emphasize that it is necessary to fully support and organize the promotion of various production enterprises to resume work and production on the premise of good prevention and control.
The State Council ‘s joint prevention and control mechanism has also issued a notice calling for the co-ordination of plans for the resumption of production by categories and batches.
  On February 12, the Standing Committee of the Politburo held a meeting again, emphasizing the need to “coordinate the epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development” to minimize the impact of epidemic prevention and control work in non-epidemic prevention and control areas on the people ‘s production and life.
  On February 15, the three departments including the Municipal Supervision Bureau issued the “Ten Articles on Supporting Resumption of Work and Resumption of Production” to simplify the formalities for enterprises to resume work.
The CBRC issued the “Notice on Further Improving Financial Services for Epidemic Prevention and Control”, requiring financial support for companies such as health care, important material production, transportation and logistics, increasing loans for manufacturing, strengthening supply chain financial services, and improvingThe “first loan ratio” of micro enterprises and the proportion of credit loans reduce the comprehensive financing cost of small and micro enterprises.
The Ministry of Agriculture and other three departments issued the “Emergency Notice on Resolving Current Practical Difficulties and Speeding Up the Resumption of Production and Resumption of Production in the Aquaculture Industry”, requiring that, except for cities with severe epidemics such as Wuhan, localities should allow feed and livestock slaughtering and processing enterprises to resume work, and should not set restrictions on review and approvalcondition.
  On February 16, the General Administration of Customs issued 10 measures to support foreign trade enterprises to speed up the resumption of production.
“Seeking Truth” magazine published important articles, stating that “we still have to adhere to this year’s economic and social development goals and tasks, all tasks and objectives set by the Party Central Committee must be completed”, “proactively promote the resumption of production and resume production of enterprises,” “promote the construction of major projects”.
The key to achieving economic development goals is to be able to resume work smoothly and return production to normal levels as soon as possible.
  In the latest research report released by Chief Analyst Zhang Yu of Huachuang Securities, the policy response in the fight against the “epidemic” in the past month was roughly divided into three phases: Phase I: January 20 to February 2: The epidemic was comprehensivebreak out.
The policy focuses on epidemic prevention and control and people’s livelihood protection.
  Phase 2: February 3 to February 8: The epidemic is entering a confrontation period, and the inflection point is difficult to judge.
The policy focuses on fiscal and financial development. On the one hand, it supports the production of key material enterprises for the prevention and control of the epidemic, on the other hand, it stabilizes employment and helps small and medium-sized enterprises affected by the epidemic to weather the crisis.
  Phase 3: February 9 to February 15: The epidemic situation has entered a stage of differentiation, and there are obvious signs of improvement outside Hubei Province.
This stage of the policy is to support the resumption of work and production and stabilize the economy.
  Progress of resumption of work: The epidemic prevention materials and basic security industry will resume work first, and the rate of resumption of work in the construction industry needs to be increased. According to statistics from Huatai Securities, the pace of resumption of work in the industry varies due to the impact of the epidemic and the nature of the industry.
The reinstatement of the epidemic prevention materials and basic security industry is early and the reinstatement rate is high. On the 11th, the reinstatement rate of masks was 94%.
On the 12th, the resumption rate of petroleum and petrochemical enterprises was 96.
8%, and the resumption rate of power generation companies is 83%.
According to the SASAC, construction enterprises are constrained by employment, materials, and transportation, and there is still room for improvement in the rate of return to work.
All localities will advance in the order of “Key projects for people’s livelihood in infrastructure construction> General people’s livelihood in resettlement housing> Real estate and other projects”.
  The pace of resumption of work is also very different in different places. On the 12th, the rate of resumption of state-owned enterprises in Beijing reached 99.
7%, Zhejiang Province is 79% of the resumption of security enterprises.
For industrial calibers above the designated size, on the 14th, the resumption rate in Guangzhou reached 87%, while in Shenzhen it was only 30%.
  On February 18, the State Council Office held a press conference on the support of central enterprises for the protection and prevention of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
Regarding the resumption of production and production of central enterprises, Ren Hongbin, deputy director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, stated that according to preliminary statistics, the operating rate of more than 20,000 major production-type subsidiaries of central enterprises under the supervision of the SASAC has exceeded 80%.
The other part is not due to the severe epidemic situation in some areas, and the enterprises are not yet ready to start.
Operating rates in industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, telecommunications, power grids, and transportation have exceeded 95%, and some have reached 100%.
  Focusing on epidemic prevention and control in one hand, and economic and social development in another. By summing up the current industry start-up situation, Haitong Securities has drawn two basic conclusions: First, the upstream industry is generally better than the downstream.
As some of the upstream raw material industries do not stop during the Spring Festival, the load rate has not dropped significantly, and the number of returning personnel has no significant effect on downstream industries that have not stopped during the Spring Festival. Therefore, the upstream industry is generally better than downstream.  Second, the slow return to work of enterprises mainly comes from the two major factors of transportation and demand reduction.

The reason for the slow resumption of industrial enterprises is that, of course, it is related to the 南京桑拿网 current traffic restrictions. It is difficult to obtain sufficient guarantees for the raw materials required for some production, and it is objectively restored by the production schedule. It is equally important that due to the epidemic situation,Prevention and control measures are still tight, and business activities have not started normally. Even if raw material transportation and production capacity can meet the conditions, the downstream demand leads to a passive backlog of inventory. Therefore, the resumption of car dealerships is only about 20%.Downstream is also difficult to digest normally, which is why some raw material manufacturing industries such as steel and chemical industries have contracted production after the festival.

  The agency believes that judging from the current epidemic situation, the number of supplementary confirmed cases in the country except Hubei has been declining continuously. After the epidemic situation in the non-Hubei region is stable, the level of traffic control can be appropriately reduced, and enterprises can be resumed as soon as possible.To reduce the economic impact of the epidemic.

  Hua Chuang Securities analyst Zhang Yu also said that the supply of masks is the key to effective resumption of work.

At present, the daily supply of masks is about 1 billion. After deducting the medical and transportation industries, only 40 million are needed, and about 60 million are left for “secondary production”. Compared with 200 million “secondary production” employed people, the return rate isUp to 30% -40%.

  In addition, Zhang Yu said that affected by the epidemic, the catering, accommodation, travel agency and other industries are facing a short-term monopoly in the industry.

She suggested that the supply side should be maintained in the current season so that companies would not die, and banks should be provided with credit to ease the cash flow pressure of related industries.

In the second and third quarters, if these industries are re-produced and profitable, the government must consider that they can no longer levy income taxes as scheduled, and should give some relief to allow companies to have a period of time and space to rest and rest.

  Shanxi Securities said that from the perspective of comprehensive indicators, the resumption of work continued to fall short of expectations, but it is certain that the resumption of work has begun.

At present, the scale of migrants after the holiday is less than the last 30%, and the high-speed traffic is comparable to that after the peak of the Spring Festival last year. There has been an attempted momentum in the traffic at the transportation hub. The rate of resumption of work began from February 15 to February 17, but the speed was slow.

  The agency believes that the epidemic is definitely the focus of the current market attention, but the logic behind determining the market’s mid-term operating trend is still fundamentals and liquidity.

The epidemic depresses production and demand, and the fundamentals of corporate profits will inevitably deteriorate. However, driven by the easing of monetary and credit policies, the risk-free interest rate and credit spread will decline, which is more conducive to the performance of equity assets. This is also the round of growth.Main motivation.

In the vacuum period of macro data and corporate profit data, the actual impact of economic scale is difficult to quantify, and it is easier for the market to play structural trading opportunities under the background of loose liquidity and marginal improvement of the epidemic trend.

  By industry:

Electronics industry: CDB pointed out that most of the component manufacturers are labor-intensive, and the resumption of work and accumulation of production capacity are affected to a certain extent in the short term, and raw material supply, logistics and transportation are also under short-term pressure, but it began on February 10.All have entered the orderly resumption and production phase. The supply chain leaders have relatively too many guarantees, and the heavy demand for conversion is expected to usher in a situation of alternatives.


Food and beverage industry: According to Huachuang Securities, a large number of companies in the industry are focusing on epidemic prevention and control, and resume work and resume production.

Judging from the feedback from mainstream companies and channels, basically this week, the companies have basically resumed work. Liquor companies have entered the production resumption and production resumption stage. People’s livelihood essential enterprises represented by dairy products and meat products have resumed work. Some companies have resumed work during the Spring Festival.Fully guarantee production and supply.


Transportation industry: According to a research report by Shanxi Securities, long-term express delivery has resumed, supported by several hundreds of millions of support funds, and the epidemic has stimulated the transfer of shopping demand from offline to online, which has increased the demand for express logistics, and added toll roads to temporarily waive tolls to promote logistics.The logistics industry leaders who have reduced transportation costs, improved channels and stable business sources are trying to benefit from it.


Military industry: Wanlian Securities said that most of the military enterprises have resumed their operations in order, and the impact of the epidemic is small. Due to the high concentration and stickiness of customers in the industry and the extremely high technical barriers, it is expected that orders will not be greatly affected and the supply will be relatively stable.


Light Industry: Shanxi Securities Research reported that the light industry began to resume work on February 10.

According to research, most factories and physical stores have resumed construction on February 10, which is estimated to be 8-10 days longer than in previous years.

Large-scale enterprises have comprehensively launched online marketing and launched dealer support subsidy programs.

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