AVIC Aircraft (000768) incident review: Boeing’s continuous crash market calls for large domestic aircraft

Event: On March 10, an Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737MAX crashed shortly after takeoff, killing all 157 people on board, including 8 Chinese passengers.

This is the second crash after the crash of JAL Airlines on October 29, 2018.

The cause of the accident is still under investigation. The Civil Aviation Administration of China issued a notice requesting that China’s domestic transportation flights suspend commercial operations of Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft before 18:00 on March 11, 2019.

Views: 1. Boeing has frequently encountered new problems. The 103rd domestically produced large aircraft has successfully flown for the first time. This sample is the future main model of the Boeing 737, and its sales in the international market are good.

Boeing 737MAX is a derivative model of Boeing 737 equipped with new engines, including Boeing 737MAX-7, Boeing 737MAX-8, 737MAX-9, 737 MAX-10 and Boeing 737MAX200. The accident is a sample of Boeing 737MAX-8.

Boeing 737 MAX is equipped with the latest LEAP-1B engine, the engine thrust size, more energy-saving, is the fourth generation of the main model of the Boeing 737.

According to reports, as of January 2019, 350 Boeing 737MAX series aircraft have been delivered, and the number of orders has reached 5,077.

Currently, domestic airlines operate a total of 97 Boeing 737MAX-8s.

Affected by the air crash, the safety of Boeing aircraft was questioned, and the company’s prices continued to plummet.

The accident was the second Boeing 737MAX-8 crash in half a year. On October 29, 2018, a Boeing 737MAX-8 aircraft from Lion Air Indonesia flew into the sea shortly after taking off from Jakarta International Airport. All 189 people on boardDied, the plane had just flown for 3 months.

After the accident, although Ethiopian flight safety cannot be ruled out, the safety of the model itself has still encountered great challenges.

The Civil Aviation Administration of China issued a notice requesting that China’s domestic transportation airlines suspend commercial operations of Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft before 18:00 on March 11, 2019.

About 60% of Boeing’s revenue comes from aircraft sales, and the company’s (US stock) advance premarket prices fell by 8%.

If the aircraft ‘s automatic anti-stall system has hidden safety hazards, it will definitely delay the pace of Boeing 737 upgrades and also make way for the large domestic aircraft to make a considerable domestic market.

The cause of the accident is still under investigation. In contrast, large domestic aircraft are conducting test flights in accordance with established procedures.

According to Xinhua News Agency, on December 28, 2018, 103 large-scale C919 domestic passenger planes landed safely at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, successfully completing the first flight, marking a total of three C919 aircraft currently in test flight.

According to Xinhua News, the 104, 105, and 106 test aircraft of the C919 aircraft are undergoing partial assembly and final assembly as planned, and they plan to participate in the test flight certification process next year.

The chief designer of large domestic aircraft said that the C919 large domestic aircraft is expected to obtain an airworthiness certificate in 2021.

2. AVIC Aircraft is the main contractor for large domestically produced aircraft. In the near future, AVIC Aircraft will fully benefit from the main military aviation products business of AVIC Aircraft. The main business includes military aircraft, civil aircraft, international cooperation subcontracting projects, and large aircraft.Airframe structure, as well as aircraft landing gear and braking systems, accounted for more than 94% of its main business revenue.

The company is a supplier of large aircraft structural parts. It undertakes six work packages for C919 large aircraft, including the middle chassis (including the central wing), the outer wing box (including the fixed front and rear edges), the aileron, the trailing edge flaps, and the leading edge.Slats and spoilers.

The C919 belongs to the “medium and short-range dual-engine narrow-body civil transport aircraft” and is a single-aisle medium-sized passenger aircraft. Its adjacent aircraft are the American Boeing B737, European Airbus A320, Canadian Bombardier CS300, and Russian United Aircraft Corporation MS21.

The demand for civil aircraft in China is increasing, and the civil aviation fleet will increase to four times in the next 20 years.

On September 19, 2017, COMAC released the Annual Report of COMAC’s Civil Aircraft Market 2017-2036. It is expected that there will be 8,575 new aircraft demand in the next 20 years. By 2035, the size of the Chinese fleet will reach8,684 aircraft, while the size of China ‘s civil aviation fleet was only 2,370 in 2014, which has nearly quadrupled in 20 years.

In the next 20 years, the total value of passenger aircraft will exceed 2 trillion.

According to the civil aircraft market forecast annual report, there will be 8,575 new aircraft demand by the end of 2034, of which 8232 are large jet airliners and 343 are regional jets.

According to Netease information, the unit price of a large jet passenger aircraft in the spring is about 50 million US dollars, and the unit price of a regional airliner is about 30 million US dollars. This translates into a value of 28,263 civilian aircraft over the next 20 years.


3. Development platform of the company’s strategic and strategic transport aircraft and bomber AVIC aircraft has successively developed Yun-8, Yun-9 and Yun-20 in the field of transport aircraft. Among them, Yun-8 and Yun-9 are still the main models of increasingly transport aircraft.The market space of -20 is huge.

The performance of Yun-20 Il-76 is close to that of C-17.

The development of the Yun-20 refers to the aerodynamic shape and structural design of the Il-76, and incorporates some features 杭州桑拿 of the C-17. It is equipped with a Russian-made four-engine D-30KP turbofan engine (the WS-20 will be gradually replaced in the future) for maximum flight.The weight is 220 tons, and the payload is over 66 tons.

The comprehensive performance of the Yun-20 upstream Il-76 (engine, electronics, load capacity and short-track take-off and landing performance is better), close to the C-17.

The Xinyun-9 was officially equipped with the Air Force in 2012. At the same time, multi-type special aircrafts based on the Yun-9 were also launched in sequence, including Air Police-500, Gaoxin-6 (anti-submarine), Gaoxin-8 (intelligence collection), and Gaoxin-9 (electronic interference), Yun-9 special warfare (special operations) and new high-level aircraft (psychological warfare), most of them have entered the mass production stage.

The company is also an annual strategic bomber development platform.

At present, the main bombing bomb of the country is still the H-6K. However, it is mentioned that the US B2 has the disadvantage of hindering the bomb load and range, and it does not have the stealth capability.

Strategic bombers are scarce, but a new generation of long-range strategic bombers is already under development.

At present, there are sufficient technical reserves for stealth materials and aerodynamic layout. Therefore, mature technologies that can be used in new strategic bombers play a role in boosting fighter performance.

4. Investment suggestions We expect the company’s main operating income for 2018-2020 to be 338, respectively.

45 billion, 390.5.7 billion and 462.

5.0 billion, net profit attributable to mothers was 5 respectively.

25 billion, 7.

02 billion and 9.

37 trillion, the corresponding EPS is 0.

19 yuan, 0.

25 yuan and 0.

34 yuan, corresponding to PE is 88 times, 66 times and 49 times respectively, maintaining the company’s “strongly recommended” level.

Risk warning: The development progress of large aircraft is less than expected, and the order and delivery of military aircraft is less than expected.

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